Autore: Ermanno Catullo
Tipologia: Contributo in volume
Titolo volume: Introduction to Agent-Based Economics
Volume/pagina: chapter 5, pp. 105-124
Economic crises are complex events, and thus forecasting their occurrence is intrinsically problematic. Describing macroeconomic phenomena as the emerging patterns of a complex system, macroeconomic agent-based models may shed some light on the conditions and causes that may lead to crises. Therefore, in this chapter, we illustrate an agent-based simulation model derived from the theoretical framework developed into the “Modellone” and “Modellaccio.” Indeed, in this simulation model, crises emerge endogenously, in particular, during expansions, the combination of high levels of leverage and high degree of credit network concentration may create the conditions that may lead to huge output downturns. The model allows us to isolate some early warning measures for crises using the signal technique, where macrovariable variations are conceived as signals that are valued according to their capacity of anticipating crises avoiding false alarms.