Autori: Armenia S, Cardazzone A
Tipologia Prodotto: Contributo in volume
Titolo del Volume: Proceedings of the 32nd International System Dynamics Conference (ISDC)
Codice ISBN: 978-1-935056-13-3
Anno di pubblicazione: 2014
Abstract:
The aim of our research is to analyze the development of some Islamic terror groups, by means of System Dynamics (SD). SD is a qualitative and quantitative methodology that helps analyzing complex systems, characterized by feedback mechanisms between actions taken by a decision maker and the reactions that the system manifests over time. After building a possible model accounting for the development dynamics common to some Islamic groups of terror, we will firstly analyze traditional counter-terrorism actions and their effectiveness in terms of resolution of threat (we will refer to these traditional counter-terrorism measures like ” tactics “). Subsequently, our analysis will focus on a proposal for strategic counter-terrorism actions, in order to show the differences between tactical and strategic actions in terms of resolution of threat. We will also show how strategic measures, through the exchange of data and information between countries, will help in circumscribing and isolating different groups, rather than contrasting them in their direct illegal activities. ACKNOLEDGEMENTS: We’d like to thank Dr. Arije Antinori, for his support in the analysis of the ” strategic ” level policies as well as for his precious insights in the understanding of potential implications. Also, we’d like to thank Prof. Luigi Geppert, for his precious support in the preliminary steps of our research.
Keywords: Counter-Terrorism, Asymmetric Conflict, Support to Intelligence, Complex Systems Understanding, System Dynamics, Systems Thinking